The latest Quaest poll, released on Wednesday (11), indicates that President Lula continues to hold a steady position ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro in hypothetical electoral scenarios for both the first and second round of votes. The poll shows that while Lula's lead was ten points over Bolsonaro in December, this has now narrowed to a five-point advantage. Felipe Nunes, director of Quaest, suggests that this trend positions Bolsonaro as the primary opposition candidate in the upcoming presidential race.

This polling marks the first instance without São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos), who has stated intentions to run for re-election. The results indicate not only the fluctuating dynamics between Lula and Flávio but also reveal that both candidates are viewed unfavorably by a significant portion of the electorate. As per Nunes's insights, this could signal a tightly contested election, given the close voter sentiments reflected in the data.

Additionally, the poll also provided insights into Lula's approval ratings, which have remained relatively stable, oscillating within the margin of error. Notably, 49% of respondents expressed disapproval of Lula's performance, highlighting the challenges he faces despite leading the race. This combination of factors suggests an intricate electoral landscape for the upcoming presidential election, emphasizing both candidates' vulnerabilities as they strive for public support.