A recent Quaest poll indicates that President Lula is ahead in the first round of the presidential election, with Flávio Bolsonaro establishing himself as the primary opposition contender.
A new poll released by Quaest shows Brazilian President Lula da Silva maintaining a lead in all scenarios for the first round of the upcoming presidential election. The poll indicates that Lula's voting intention varies between 35% and 39%, while Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, the leading opposition candidate, shows intentions of 29% to 33%. Notably, this survey is the first that does not include São Paulo Governor Tarcísio Freitas as a potential candidate, highlighting the firm positioning of Lula and Flávio in the electoral landscape.
The polling data tested seven different scenarios with eight candidates, revealing a competitive dynamic between Lula and Bolsonaro. In scenarios where both candidates have the widest margin, Lula leads by eight points, while in the closest contest, he is ahead by four. According to Felipe Nunes, the director of Quaest, Flávio Bolsonaro's rising profile as the principal opposition candidate results from his appeal to both Bolsonaro's base and non-Bolsonaro right-wing voters. However, he still faces the challenge of attracting additional voters to gain more traction in the election race.
As Lula prepares for the election, his leadership status remains strong despite a divided opposition. Meanwhile, Flávio Bolsonaro's consolidation indicates a potential shift in the political landscape if he can appeal to a broader electorate. The continued rivalry between these two prominent figures will shape the upcoming electoral strategies and voter dynamics leading into the presidential elections in Brazil, making it a crucial battleground for both parties as they seek to secure votes in the first round.
