A new Datafolha survey released by 'Folha de S.Paulo' indicates that in a potential second-round presidential election in 2026, President Lula of the Workers' Party (PT) has 46% of voter intentions compared to his opponent, Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party (PL), who has garnered 43%. This survey reflects a significant shift from earlier polling done in December, which showed Lula with a 51% lead over Bolsonaro's 36%. In a poll conducted in July 2025, Lula was at 48% while Bolsonaro was at 37%.

The polling data suggests a competitive race ahead for the presidency, with a notable increase in Flávio Bolsonaro's support compared to previous months. It indicates that voter sentiment towards Lula may be waning slightly, as he has fallen from a commanding lead, which could have important implications for his administration's policies and efforts moving forward. Additionally, this recent survey highlighted that 10% of respondents are undecided or would vote for none of the candidates, and 1% did not answer.

Conducted between October 3rd and 5th, the survey sampled opinions from 2,004 voters over the age of 16 across 137 municipalities in Brazil. The margin of error is two percentage points in either direction, and the confidence level is 95%. This survey not only sets the stage for the upcoming elections but also underscores the dynamic political landscape in Brazil as voter preferences evolve.