According to a recent survey conducted by Genial/Quaest from February 5 to 9, Flávio Bolsonaro, senator and son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, has emerged as the primary challenger to President Lula as Brazil approaches the 2026 elections. The survey indicates that Lula retains the lead in all tested first-round scenarios, garnering between 35% and 39% of voter intentions. Meanwhile, Flávio Bolsonaro consistently secures second place with 29% to 33% support, showcasing his significant status within the political landscape.

The survey involved 2,004 interviews with Brazilian citizens aged 16 and over, providing a margin of error of 2 percentage points and a 95% confidence level. Additionally, the survey evaluated seven hypothetical matchups that included various state governors such as Ratinho Jr. from Paraná, Romeu Zema from Minas Gerais, and Eduardo Leite from Rio Grande do Sul. In each scenario, Lula maintains a lead, demonstrating both his ongoing popularity and the competitive nature of the next election cycle.

Overall, as the political landscape shifts in Brazil, the study reflects the emerging dynamics between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, suggestive of a closely watched electoral battle ahead. While Lula continues to have a solid base of support, Flávio's rise indicates potential challenges that the incumbent president will face in maintaining his position as candidates prepare for what promises to be a contentious election year.