Datafolha's latest poll shows President Lula ahead in all scenarios for the first round of the 2026 presidential elections in Brazil, although his lead is diminishing.
A recent Datafolha survey published by the newspaper 'Folha de S.Paulo' on Saturday indicates that President Lula (PT) maintains a lead in all scenarios for the first round of the upcoming 2026 presidential elections, yet there is a notable decline in his advantage. The poll tests various matchups, including Lula against prominent figures such as Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) and several state governors including Ratinho Junior (PR), Romeu Zema (MG), Ronaldo Caiado (GO), Tarcísio de Freitas (SP), and Eduardo Leite (RS).
The poll also highlights Tarcísio de Freitas has confirmed his candidacy for re-election in São Paulo, while other candidates featured in the survey include Renan Santos from the Missão party and Aldo Rebelo from the Christian Democracy party. Interestingly, the Datafolha also evaluates scenarios where the economy minister, Fernando Haddad (PT), is positioned as a candidate without Lula's presence. This reflects the evolving dynamics of the political landscape as Brazil approaches the important election cycle.
The polling data, collected from 2,004 voters aged 16 and older across 137 municipalities between Monday, October 3, and Thursday, October 5, suggests a competitive race. While Lula currently holds a favorable position, the diminishing lead emphasizes the fluidity of voter sentiment and indicates that various factors may influence his ability to maintain traction as the election approaches. The changing attitudes among voters could signal a need for Lula's campaign to adapt strategies to reinforce support ahead of the pivotal elections.
