In his commentary originally published in Sirp, Ülo Mattheus addresses the nearly collapsed status of Russia's primary objective in the war against Ukraine, which was to reclaim its lost leadership role in global security politics. He reflects on how the conflict impacts not only Ukraine but also neighboring Estonia, suggesting that the outcome of this war could significantly affect Estonia's national security. Based on the insights from German political scientist Carlo Masala, Mattheus outlines a hypothetical scenario where Russian forces could potentially control parts of Estonia, specifically Narva and Kärdla, by 2028 if Ukraine suffers defeat in the ongoing war.

Mattheus emphasizes the broader humanitarian crisis created by the war, where countless lives are being lost daily under heavy bombardment. He acknowledges that while the statistics of death and suffering may appear abstract, every single life lost is a deep tragedy that impacts humanity as a whole. Citing English poet John Donne, he reminds readers that the bell tolls for all, highlighting how the consequences of the conflict are felt universally and not just regionally.

This commentary serves as a stark reminder of the interconnectedness of nations and the far-reaching implications of regional conflicts. As Estonia braces for the potential repercussions of the war, the need for solidarity and collective action in the face of such challenges becomes ever more critical, reinforcing Estonia's commitment to its own security and the support of Ukraine in its struggle against Russian aggression.