In a commentary originally published in Sirp, Ülo Mattheus discusses the implications of regime changes in other countries for Russian President Vladimir Putin's hold on power. He outlines a strategic plan that includes large-scale mobilization, a deeper transition to a war economy in Russia, and the opening of a second front in Europe. Mattheus notes that recent losses of key allies like Nicolás Maduro and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei represent significant setbacks for Putin, potentially leading to a reassessment of his position as the next dictator on the global stage.

Furthermore, Mattheus highlights that the United States and Israel are preparing to deal with a successor to the Ayatollah, Mojtaba Khamenei, suggesting that if the new Iranian leader continues current policies, he will also become a target. This connection draws a direct parallel between the risks faced by Putin and those imminent in Iran’s political future. The emphasis is on the limitations of diplomacy, as tactical military responses seem to be prioritized.

The article also cites Igor Eidman, a sociologist living in Berlin, who frequently comments on Russian affairs. Eidman underscores that Putin may fear for his own survival, drawing similarities with Iran's negotiations with the U.S. and the potential for political upheaval. As political tensions escalate around him, the prospect of Putin being ousted becomes a pressing concern for his supporters and adversaries alike.