As the conflict between the United States and Israel against Iran enters its thirteenth day, initial enthusiasm in Israel for the possible collapse of the Iranian regime has turned into disappointment. Reports indicate that after the launch of the operation dubbed ‘Roaring Lion,’ Israeli officials began questioning the feasibility of regime change in Iran, shifting the narrative from hope to skepticism. Early aspirations for a successful regime overthrow appeared overly optimistic, with many acknowledging the resilience of the Iranian leadership and the reassessment of objectives in light of current realities.

Moreover, planned ground invasion efforts involving Kurdish forces aimed at Iran have been thwarted, and it has been acknowledged that those exiting Iran are not regime opponents but rather members of the Basij militia. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had previously stated the goal of completely dismantling what he termed a 'terror regime,' but has recently emphasized that the onus for change rests with the Iranian people themselves. This position reflects a broader understanding among Israeli officials that the foundational goal of the war is to create conditions for the Iranian populace to determine their future autonomously.

Leaked discussions among Israeli officials reveal a significant lack of confidence in the war leading to regime collapse in Iran, with the likelihood of large-scale uprisings or regime change appearing minimal at this time. These insights showcase a collective sentiment among various diplomats and analysts that victory cannot simply be assumed through military means, highlighting the complexities and unpredictable outcomes of military engagement with Iran. As the conflict continues, the evolving perceptions of the war's aims and potential results will be crucial in shaping future strategies and diplomatic relations.