The ongoing military operations by the United States and Israel in Iran have sparked critical questions regarding the future of the Islamic Republic. The article explores whether these operations may lead to a significant shift in power dynamics within Iran, or if the regime will merely replace its current leaders with others while maintaining the same authoritarian structure. The discussion centers on potential fractures within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and whether these divisions could allow for a portion of the military to align more closely with popular movements within the country.

Professor Hannu Juusola from the University of Helsinki provides insights into the possible outcomes for Iran's political landscape. He describes various scenarios including the possibility of a significant popular uprising inspired by Reza Pahlavi, the son of the overthrown Shah, who now resides in the U.S. Pahlavi has expressed support for a resurgence of the Iranian public against the current regime, urging citizens to prepare for potential revolutionary changes. This context raises questions about the feasibility of democratization in Iran, particularly as external pressures from the U.S. and Israel intensify.

The analysis highlights a crucial moment in Iranian history, as the internal landscape of the ruling powers is under scrutiny. If divisions within the Revolutionary Guard deepen, there may be unforeseen consequences for the regime’s hold on power. The implications of these military operations from external forces could either provoke a wave of change leading towards democratization or reinforce the existing authoritarian order depending on how various factions within Iran respond to the current crisis.