In the fourth quarter of 2025, Nigeria reported a substantial trade surplus of N1.71 trillion, even as it grappled with a decrease in both total trade and exports. The recent statistics released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) indicate that the total merchandise trade reached N36.21 trillion during this period, marking a decline of 1.07% from N36.60 trillion in the same quarter of the previous year and an 8.94% drop from the preceding quarter's trade figures.

The downturn in trade is primarily linked to a significant reduction in crude oil exports, which have historically been Nigeria's main export commodity. The NBS data reveals that total exports for the fourth quarter amounted to ₦18.96 trillion, representing about 52.36% of total trade, highlighting the continued importance of oil in Nigeria's economy despite the decline. This collapse in oil exports is a critical factor as it raises concerns about the vulnerabilities of the Nigerian economy, especially given its reliance on oil revenue.

Nevertheless, the reported trade surplus suggests that import expenses were managed effectively or that there may have been a decline in imports as well. While the trade surplus can provide temporary relief to the economy, analysts warn that without diversification and improvements in other sectors, particularly in non-oil exports, Nigeria might continue facing trade imbalances in the future. The findings underline the necessity for strategic economic reforms aimed at enhancing trade resilience over the long term and reducing dependency on oil.