In the fourth quarter of 2025, Nigeria recorded a trade surplus of ₦1.71 trillion, despite experiencing a decline in exports primarily due to reduced shipments of crude oil. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), total merchandise trade amounted to ₦36.21 trillion, marking a slight decline compared to previous periods. Exports represented a little over half of this total trade, valued at ₦18.96 trillion, which is markedly lower than both the corresponding quarter of 2024 and the third quarter of 2025.

The report highlights that the decrease in exports by 5.25% from the same quarter in 2024 and a significant drop of 16.88% from Q3 2025 can be attributed to a downturn in crude oil exports, Nigeria's leading export product. This shift underscores the vulnerability of Nigeria's economy, which heavily relies on crude oil sales for foreign exchange earnings. The data suggests an alarming trend considering the consistent decline in the volume of crude oil shipments, a factor that raises concerns about the sustainability of Nigeria's trade surplus.

As the report unveils these trends, it raises questions about future economic policies and strategies that the Nigerian government must implement to bolster export values. With imports on the rise, understanding this balance will be crucial for maintaining the trade surplus and overall economic stability. The NBS's findings serve as an urgent call to action for policymakers to diversify Nigeria's export portfolio and reduce reliance on crude oil, ensuring a more resilient economy going forward.