The summer harvest in Rio Grande do Sul is forecasted to experience a 7% drop in overall productivity in 2026, according to the Technical Assistance and Rural Extension Company (Emater). This announcement was made during an event on March 10 at the Expodireto Cotrijal fair in Não-Me-Toque. The total expected production for 2026 is 32.8 million tons, down from an earlier estimate of 35.3 million tons announced in August 2025. The decline is attributed to a drought that led to high temperatures and insufficient rainfall at critical periods for harvesting.

Emater highlights specific regions most affected by these conditions, such as Santa Rosa, which anticipates a dramatic 27% reduction in productivity, and Ijuí, where a decrease of 13% is expected. The most significant impact is projected for soybeans, which is the primary crop cultivated in Rio Grande do Sul, covering an area of 6.6 million hectares. The estimated production for soybeans stands at slightly over 19 million tons, reflecting an 11.3% decrease from previous forecasts, raising concerns among local farmers regarding the sustainability of yields in future seasons.

This anticipated drop in productivity underscores the challenges posed by climate conditions in agricultural planning and output. As Brazil continues to be one of the world's top producers of soybeans, such reductions in yield can have implications not only for local economies but also for international markets that depend on Brazilian agricultural exports. Stakeholders in the farming community are likely to challenge how to adapt to these changing environmental conditions to safeguard their livelihoods and future harvests.