Feb 19 • 01:00 UTC 🇧🇷 Brazil Folha (PT)

With falling prices, the value of Brazilian production declines this year

Brazil's expected record grain harvest does not translate to increased producer revenue, which is set to decline compared to 2025 due to falling prices.

The report indicates that Brazil is poised for a record grain harvest of 353 million tons, a slight increase of 0.3%. However, the financial returns for producers are projected to drop, with the Gross Value of Production (VBP) decreasing to US$ 1.37 trillion, representing a decline of 3.6% from the previous year. This trend diverges from the higher earnings observed in 2025, with revenues from both crops and livestock expected to decline significantly.

Specifically, the value of crop production is anticipated to fall to R$ 895 billion, down 4% from the record of R$ 932 billion achieved in 2025, based on inflation-adjusted figures. Similarly, livestock revenue is set to fall to R$ 475 billion, which is a 3% decrease. These figures reflect the interplay between production volumes and the prices received by farmers, highlighting that while harvest volumes may be high, the market conditions are not favoring producer profits.

This year is marked by considerable uncertainty, as producers are navigating a challenging economic landscape that exacerbates the impact of declining prices. The future for Brazil's agricultural sector remains tenuous, as farmers contend with these economic shifts that could influence their operational viability and investment in the upcoming seasons.

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