Argentina's 2025/26 soybean campaign is showing signs of vulnerability, with the latest survey from the Rosario Stock Exchange indicating that production in the core region is now estimated at 17.2 million tons. This marks a reduction of 600,000 tons from earlier projections, a consequence largely driven by water deficits experienced during critical phases of the crop cycle. While rainfall in February helped to mitigate some deterioration across much of the agricultural area, it was insufficient to fully recover the lost potential.

The weekly report outlines a mixed scenario within the core region, where certain areas in the center and north have managed to stabilize yield expectations due to recent precipitation. However, the southern Santa Fe corridor is still facing greater water stress, adversely affecting the crops. In these distressed areas, early soy plants have experienced reproductive stages with limited water availability, posing risks to overall yields.

The significant reduction in soybean production not only implies potential economic impacts for farmers and the agricultural sector but may also contribute to fluctuations in Argentina's export capabilities and market dynamics. Considering that soy is a staple crop for Argentina's economy, this projected decrease could exacerbate existing challenges related to water management and agricultural sustainability in the region.