Governor Tarcísio de Freitas of the Republicans is leading the polls in all scenarios tested by Datafolha, boasting over 40% of voting intention for the first round of the São Paulo government election. The survey indicates that Tarcísio maintains a significant lead against other candidates, including those associated with President Lula's party, the PT. Notably, minister Fernando Haddad is performing better than vice-president Geraldo Alckmin and minister Simone Tebet in the potential matchups.

In addition to his first-round lead, Tarcísio also surpasses his rivals in hypothetical second-round scenarios, with voting intention percentages ranging from 50% to 60%. This substantial margin suggests a strong voter base and solid support for the governor as the election approaches. The poll was conducted from March 3 to 5, involving 1,608 interviews across 71 municipalities in São Paulo.

The Datafolha research highlights the emerging dynamics of the electoral race in São Paulo, where the political landscape is still taking shape, particularly within the PT as it has yet to finalize its candidate for the state government. The results have implications for both Tarcísio's administration and the strategies of opposing parties as they respond to the demonstrated preferences of the electorate in one of Brazil's largest states.