Eight months before the elections, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos) is solidifying his re-election bid in São Paulo by gathering much of the center-right due to his favorable standing in polls and control over the state's administrative machinery. However, his campaign faces internal challenges within the allied base, indicating potential vulnerabilities. The political landscape shows that the opposition lacks a competitive candidate and is still devising strategies to mount a challenge against Tarcísio's well-supported campaign.

Tarcísio's coalition includes support from various parties such as PL, the coalition of PP-Union Brasil, PSD, along with notable figures such as Gilberto Kassab, his Secretary of Government, and other parties like MDB and Podemos. Analysts attribute the strength of his alliance to his administration’s positive approval ratings and the robust structure of governance he has established. Recent polling from Quaest shows Tarcísio leading with 43% of voter intentions, significantly ahead of rivals like Geraldo Alckmin (PSB), who polls at 21%, and Erika Hilton (PSOL) at 8%.

As Tarcísio heads into the election year, he appears to have addressed most of the conflicts with his allies within both political and administrative spheres, making him a formidable candidate. This consolidation of power among the center-right, paired with the fragmentation of the left, positions Tarcísio as a strong frontrunner, but the evolving dynamics of the campaign and the opposition's ability to create a competitive candidate remain crucial factors in the lead-up to the elections.