In light of recent U.S. and Israeli military actions against Iran, President Donald Trump made a statement to the Iranian people suggesting they take control of their government once the international aggression concludes. This statement, combined with the recent death of Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has thrown the future of Iran's political landscape into uncertainty. Aurel Croissant, a political scientist from Heidelberg, emphasizes the precarious situation in Iran, where the regime might act out with less inhibition as it faces existential threats.

Croissant critiques the notion that regime change in Iran is a primary goal of the U.S. and Israel, arguing that any shifts in governance might be seen as a tangential benefit of their military strategies rather than a direct objective. He details the dire conditions under which a potential democracy could emerge in Iran, highlighting the fragmented political environment, repressive state apparatus, and the lack of strong civil society structures. These factors contribute to a grim picture of any democratic transition in the foreseeable future.

The interview with Croissant unfolds crucial insights into the dynamics of authoritarianism in Iran and raises questions about the efficacy of external military interventions in fostering democratic reforms. The implications of continued military conflict suggest that, rather than paving the way for democracy, such actions could instead reinforce the regime's grip on power, making the prospect of a democratic Iran an even more distant reality.