The future of Iran's theocratic regime is uncertain following the potential death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Despite U.S. President Donald Trump urging Iranian citizens to seek regime change, many analysts believe that the power vacuum left by Khamenei's departure could likely be filled by hardline individuals rather than lead to a more moderate or reformist government. Iran has maintained an Islamic regime for 47 years, supported by a network of clerics and the Revolutionary Guards, which creates a stronghold against any opposition that might arise even with U.S. backing.

The Revolutionary Guards, a military organization with significant political and economic influence, are expected to remain powerful during this transition. Historical parallels are drawn to Syria, where the government became weakened during civil war while external influences attempted to reshape the power structure. In contrast, despite numerous violent actions against Iranian protesters, the Revolutionary Guards have shown no signs of internal division and have solidified their hold on power. Observers like CNN suggest that any return of exiled opposition figures, such as Reza Pahlavi, could face insurmountable challenges due to the threat posed by the Revolutionary Guards.

As a temporary leadership council has been formed under the current constitution to manage any power transition, it seems likely that Ali Larijani, the Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council and a former speaker of the parliament who has been involved in suppressing dissent, will take the helm. This scenario signals a continuation of hardline policies and significant resistance to any substantial changes that might come from the populace or external actors, indicating that U.S. efforts to effect change from within could yield unexpected outcomes that reinforce the existing structures rather than dismantle them.