The Bank of Korea (BOK) has adjusted its GDP growth forecast for the current year from 1.8% to 2.0%, aligning with the government's estimate while surpassing projections made by the Korea Development Institute and the International Monetary Fund. Despite this positive adjustment, the BOK has noted that growth will be heavily reliant on the technology sector, particularly semiconductor exports, as domestic consumption and investment are expected to show only modest recovery. Meanwhile, the potential for a 'K-shaped' economic recovery, characterized by a divergence in growth across sectors, raises concerns about deepening economic polarization.

In its revised economic outlook announced on the 26th, the BOK indicated that economic growth is anticipated to be bolstered by improvements in the semiconductor sector even as construction investment remains sluggish and tariffs imposed by the United States may add downward pressure on growth. The bank forecasted quarter-on-quarter growth rates of 0.9%, 0.3%, 0.4%, and 0.4% throughout the year, reflecting a low base effect from the previous year's fourth quarter contraction. Notably, it is estimated that more than a third of this year's growth will come from the information technology manufacturing sector.

The BOK's analysis suggests that the IT sector's contribution to economic growth will be significant, with a projected 0.7 percentage points in 2023 and 0.5 in 2024. The bank has characterized the economic outlook as optimistic, suggesting that if semiconductor exports continue to rise, growth rates could reach as high as 2.2% this year and 2.1% next year. Conversely, a pessimistic scenario sees growth declining to 1.8% and 1.5%, respectively, highlighting the potential for volatility in the economy driven by external factors and market dynamics.