On December 12, Moody's, the international credit rating agency, reaffirmed South Korea's sovereign credit rating at 'Aa2' with a stable outlook. The agency highlighted several positive factors surrounding South Korea's economy, including its diverse industrial structure and strong competitiveness. While the report noted challenges such as rapid aging and increasing government debt due to productivity declines, it mentioned that these drawbacks are counterbalanced by the nation's inherent strengths.

Moody's projected that although South Korea has experienced decades of robust economic growth, its long-term growth rate may stabilize around 2%. For this year, the anticipated growth rate of 1.8% falls below the government's estimate of 2.0% but aligns with the projections from the Bank of Korea. The agency emphasized that ongoing policy efforts concentrated on technological innovations, particularly in artificial intelligence, along with productivity enhancement measures, could maintain the country's growth rate in line with other advanced economies. Additionally, it noted that strategies to diversify exports beyond semiconductors, along with capital market reforms, could contribute to economic expansion.

Despite the positive outlook, Moody's cautioned that increasing fiscal deficits linked to COVID-19 response measures and elevated spending aimed at stimulating consumption and growth are raising the debt burden. The agency forecasted that by 2030, the debt-to-GDP ratio could surpass 60%, influenced by mandatory expenditures due to aging and costs stemming from compliance with the Korea-US investment agreement. This agreement signals a shift in the bilateral relationship, which historically focused on security assurances but is now extending into trade and investment. Furthermore, the complexities introduced by the US-China tech rivalry and Korea's role in global semiconductor and defense supply chains add to the uncertainties in the economic forecast. Nonetheless, Moody's concluded that the balance of positive and negative factors allows for the maintenance of its stable outlook rating.