The Coastal El Niño phenomenon expected to significantly impact weather patterns is already observable in Peru. The Servicio Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología (Senamhi) has reported that conditions are favorable for this climatic event to escalate to a moderate category by July 2026. This projection is based on the sustained rise in sea surface temperatures off the Peruvian coast that began in February, which is linked to increased rainfall and higher temperatures in the region.

Javier Chiong, a climate variability analyst at Senamhi, elaborated on the situation, highlighting that while the Commission Multisectorial was initially forecasting the occurrence of the phenomenon to start in March, recent data indicates that the underlying sea temperature increases have already been underway since February. The evaluation period for this phenomenon, conducted on a quarterly basis, includes the months of February to April, which has confirmed the warming marine conditions that are prime for triggering significant weather events, particularly in the northern coastal regions.

The implications of a moderate Coastal El Niño event could be widespread, as such phenomena typically lead to increased precipitation levels, which may enhance flooding risks and affect agriculture and local ecosystems. With projections extending into November, the potential duration of this climatic event raises concerns about its long-term impacts on the socio-economic conditions in affected areas, especially given the present vulnerabilities in climate and weather systems.