In the context of the ongoing war in Ukraine, advisors to Premier Giorgia Meloni emphasize that Vladimir Putin's leadership poses a significant hurdle to achieving peace. They draw historical parallels, suggesting that in Russia, military defeats have historically led to regime changes, referencing past events such as the October Revolution and the collapse of the Soviet empire following the withdrawal from Afghanistan. According to them, should the prolonged conflict in Ukraine culminate in a less-than-total victory for Russia, it could herald a turning point for Putin's regime.

As the fourth anniversary of the war approaches, discussions in the Italian Senate center around aid to Ukraine, coinciding with mounting skepticism regarding Russia's position. The advisors express concern that current Russian narratives about military successes are increasingly implausible, with the situation on the battlefield described as essentially stagnant. They assert that while a genuine peace settlement is favored by the Russian populace, it would require Putin and his oligarchs to acknowledge defeat, an option they are unlikely to consider.

The underlying themes outline a critical awareness of both the military and political dimensions of the conflict, highlighting the disconnect between public sentiment in Russia and the hardline stance of its leadership. Analysts point to the critical importance of Russian public opinion as a potential catalyst for change if the stalemate persists, implying that Putin's path forward is fraught with peril, ultimately affecting not just the immediate region but broader international relations as well.