The expert, Tatjana Stanovaja from the Carnegie Endowment, predicts a pivotal year for the Ukraine war in 2023, though she cautions that expectations for peace should be tempered. She emphasizes that instead of a sustainable peace, both sides risk getting stuck without an exit strategy. Stanovaja argues that Ukraine requires an end to Russian attacks but questions what price Kyiv is willing to pay for this cessation.

She notes the significant risk for Ukraine lies in potentially becoming mired in endless ceasefire negotiations while Russia continues its military actions and infrastructure destruction. The sustainability of any ceasefire is contingent upon Russia accepting terms consistent with its demands for a peace agreement. Conversely, Russia also faces the danger of its own rigid demands barring a resolution, suggesting a complex stalemate where neither side can easily prevail without significant concessions.

Ultimately, the expert highlights that this year's developments could shape the trajectory of the conflict, with high stakes for both nations as they navigate their respective interests and actions amidst ongoing hostilities.