Recent tensions in Tigray are raising alarms about a potential return to conflict in the Horn of Africa, as the ruling Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) experiences deeper internal divisions over policy issues. Clashes between federal forces and Tigrayan fighters in the districts of Tselemti and Wajirat last month indicate a fragility to the ceasefire that has held for three years, leading to fears of an escalation into broader conflict. In response to the violence, the federal government has mobilized troops to the Tigray border and taken measures against TPLF officials, suggesting a significant deterioration in relations.

The people in Tigray are bracing for potential unrest, with an increasing number preparing for possible shortages and disruptions in essential services. Reports of stockpiling groceries and long bank queues highlight the public's fears about financial stability and access to necessities. Additionally, local businesses are reacting to the situation by refusing digital payments due to fears of disruptive consequences, further complicating daily life in the region. Ethiopian Airlines has cancelled all flights to Mekelle, further isolating the region at a critical moment in its political landscape.

The current state of affairs in Tigray presents significant implications not just for the regional stability but also for broader geopolitical dynamics in the Horn of Africa. The potential for spillover conflict could affect neighboring countries and invites international scrutiny and intervention. As the situation unfolds, the focus will remain on whether the Ethiopian federal government can maintain control in a volatile environment and how that will impact the lives of those in Tigray and beyond.