The recent execution of Nemesio Oseguera, known as El Mencho, represents a pivotal moment in Mexico's battle against organized crime, marking a departure from previous security strategies under President López Obrador. The government claims that this operation demonstrates a successful shift from a historically lenient approach to one that relies on military force, symbolized by a 'hugs to bullets' policy. However, this elimination of such a prominent crime lord raises questions about the potential for escalating violence as rival factions vie for control in the wake of El Mencho's death.

In the hours following El Mencho's assassination, widespread chaos erupted across several states, including roadblocks, arson, and shootings, indicative of the immediate response from members of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG). The sheer scale of violence suggests that the cartel is not only retaliating against government forces but also competing amongst themselves for territory and power. Throughout Mexican history, the removal of a major drug trafficker has often led to an escalation of conflict as groups attempt to fill the power vacuum left behind.

With the extensive territories previously held by the CJNG, analysts predict that it will be challenging for any single faction to consolidate power comparable to El Mencho's reign. This raises concerns about a cycle of violence that could see neighboring communities further affected, thereby destabilizing regions throughout Mexico. The Mexican government now faces the critical task of navigating this treacherous period, balancing immediate security needs while also implementing longer-term strategies to curb organized crime and restore peace to affected areas.