The article discusses the rising risk of an oil disaster along the Finnish coastline due to the increasing presence of poorly maintained Russian oil tankers, considered part of the so-called shadow fleet. A research institute based in Germany, Hereon, has modeled eight hypothetical oil spill scenarios to assess the potential consequences for Finland. These simulations are accessible via a map produced by Greenpeace, highlighting the urgency of the situation.

The models focus on the route of the unflagged and uninsured oil tanker named Peace, which belongs to this shadow fleet. Should an accident occur, scenarios indicate that up to 48,000 tons of heavy crude oil could spill between Finland and Estonia, posing significant environmental and economic threats. These troubling predictions underscore the potential impact that such incidents could have on marine ecosystems and local economies in the region.

Justiina Halonen, a logistics and maritime research manager at Southeast Finland University of Applied Sciences, commented to Iltalehti that Hereon's modeling is realistic, as the outcomes align closely with similar predictions used by authorities for spill assessments. This alarming evaluation adds to the concerns surrounding maritime safety and environmental protection in the Baltic Sea region, particularly given the operational conditions of many Russian vessels.