The Gulf of Finland is currently facing an unprecedented risk of oil spills this winter, largely attributed to a significant increase in ice coverage not seen in over a decade, coupled with the activities of Russia's shadow fleet. The ice conditions not only pose risks to vessels navigating the waters but also complicate potential recovery operations in the event of an oil spill. It is noted that if an oil spill were to occur, the extensive ice could hinder cleanup efforts significantly, raising concerns over environmental impacts in the region.

Since 2022, Russia has been developing a shadow fleet in response to Western sanctions, which has now created a notable presence in the Gulf of Finland during the winter months. This is the first winter where the extent of ice coverage has reached this level, raising alarms among environmental experts and authorities. Anni Jokiniemi, a marine expert from the Finnish Meteorological Institute, was commissioned by Yle to create a simulation reflecting how an oil spill would spread under current conditions, underscoring the serious implications of potential incidents in these ice-covered waters.

The simulation indicates that in the event of an oil spill near international waters close to Estonia's territorial seas, the oil could spread over a vast area. It was created based on the weather conditions at the end of January, when parts of the Gulf of Finland were frozen and wind conditions were minimal. The findings of this modeling emphasize the urgent need for improved contingency planning for oil spills in the region, especially considering the winter's unique challenges and increased risks from geopolitical tensions.