Nigeria's oil sector has faced a substantial loss of approximately N1.76 trillion as a result of its inability to meet the crude oil production quotas set by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) for the period from January 2025 to January 2026. Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission indicates that Nigeria's crude oil production fell below the target of 1.5 million barrels per day across nine months in 2025, with similar trends persisting into January 2026, despite relatively stable global crude oil prices.

In January 2025, Nigeria successfully exceeded its OPEC quota by producing 1.54 million barrels per day, marking a surplus of about 40,000 barrels. Nevertheless, in subsequent months such as February through May, production did decline, with numbers dropping to as low as 1.40 million barrels per day, well below OPEC's target. Although there were slight surpluses in June and July, where production exceeded the quota by 10,000–30,000 barrels per day, the overall trend has highlighted a concerning failure to consistently meet production expectations.

The implications of this shortfall are significant for Nigeria's economy, which heavily relies on oil revenue. The missed quotas not only represent lost income but could also affect Nigeria's standing within OPEC and its relationship with other member countries. If these trends continue, it may lead to increased scrutiny from OPEC and potential repercussions for Nigeria's production allowances in the future. Managing production to align with OPEC quotas becomes ever more critical as the country seeks to stabilize its oil revenues and economic prospects.