A report predicts that South Korea's employment growth rate will stabilize at 0% by 2034, driven by low birth rates, an aging population, and advancements in AI technology.
A recent report by the Korea Employment Information Service indicates that South Korea's employment rate will face stagnation from 2030, largely due to demographic changes such as low birth rates and an aging population. The report forecasts that the number of employed individuals will peak at approximately 28.94 million in 2030, just a slight increase from 28.57 million in 2024, before declining to about 28.64 million by 2034. Over the following decade, the average employment growth rate is expected to be a mere 0%.
The report delves into how the structural changes in the population will affect the labor market. It suggests that while the working-age population (ages 15-64) will continue to decline due to the low birth rate and increasing life expectancy, the proportion of those aged 65 and above will significantly rise, reaching 31.7% by 2034. This demographic shift is anticipated to create structural constraints in labor supply, further contributing to the stagnation of employment numbers.
Additionally, the demand for labor is projected to shift across different sectors. There will be a notable increase in employment within the health and welfare sector due to the growth in the elderly population (98,200 jobs), as well as in the professional and scientific services (136,000 jobs) and information technology sectors (193,000 jobs), fueled by technological advancements in AI. Conversely, industries such as retail and manufacturing are expected to experience declines in employment. The Employment Information Service emphasizes that the spread of AI will likely increase demand for high-skilled technical jobs while decreasing demand for roles such as sales, necessitating reskilling and job transition efforts during this industrial transformation.
