Defense experts from the Baltic States have expressed significant concern over a scenario presented in a German-led military exercise, suggesting that Russia could easily undermine NATO's credibility and dominate the Baltic states within a matter of days. This scenario, which was part of a tabletop exercise organized by the German newspaper Die Welt and the Helmut Schmidt University of the German Armed Forces, involved a hypothetical invasion taking place in October 2026. The exercise included participation from 16 former high-ranking German and NATO officials, legislators, and security experts.

According to reports, the exercise outcomes indicated that without American leadership, Russia could effectively achieve this rapid conquest by deploying as few as 15,000 troops. The scenario posited that Russia would exploit a humanitarian crisis in the Kaliningrad region as a pretext for its aggression, culminating in the capture of the city of Marijampole in Lithuania. These findings have alarmed Baltic leaders, as they highlight the perceived vulnerabilities of NATO in the face of a potential Russian offensive.

The criticisms from Baltic experts underscore an urgent need for NATO to reassess its deterrence strategies within the region. With increasing tensions between Russia and NATO allies, particularly in the context of Ukraine, the viability of NATO's response plans and the level of commitment from member states are coming under scrutiny. Such discussions point to a broader concern regarding regional security and the necessity for a robust collective defense framework against potential threats from Russia, particularly towards its neighboring countries in the Baltic region.