A simulation in Germany revealed that Russia could potentially seize control of the Baltic states, including Lithuania, with minimal forces; however, Lithuania strongly rejected the findings.
A recent simulation conducted in Germany, in collaboration with the German military's gaming center, explored how easily Russia could invade the Baltic states, specifically focusing on Lithuania. The exercise, which involved 16 high-level experts including former NATO officials and security policy specialists, concluded that Russia could seize control of the Baltics using approximately 15,000 troops. The findings raised concerns about NATO's unity in the face of such threats, as the scenario portrayed a realistic representation of Russian leadership and tactics.
During the simulation, Russia initiated a so-called 'humanitarian intervention' in Lithuania, claiming that the Baltic nation was obstructing transport routes to the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad. This move was characterized by experts in the simulation as a strategy designed to undermine NATO's collective defense principles. Critics, including Lithuania's government, have firmly rejected the conclusions of the exercise, arguing that it does not account for the realities of NATO's military commitments and the response capabilities of member nations.
The implications of this simulation are significant, as they highlight the vulnerabilities that the Baltics could face in the event of a Russian aggression, sparking a debate on the need for increased military readiness and strategic planning among NATO member states. Moreover, the exercise serves as a stark reminder of the ongoing tensions in Eastern Europe and the necessity for robust deterrence strategies to maintain stability in the region.
