A German war game analysis has sparked criticism, suggesting that without US intervention, Russia could exploit a crisis to undermine NATO's image in the Baltic region.
A recent war game organized in December 2025 by the German newspaper Die Welt, in collaboration with the Helmut Schmidt University and the German armed forces, has drawn sharp criticism for its portrayal of a potential conflict scenario involving Lithuania. According to the analysis published by The Wall Street Journal, the exercise involved 16 former high-ranking German and NATO officials, parliamentarians, and security experts, who envisioned a situation unfolding in October 2026 where Russia, seizing on a humanitarian crisis in the Kaliningrad region, could justify an invasion of Marijampole, Lithuania.
The war game scenario, criticized for its bleakness, suggests that if the United States does not take the initiative, Russia could initially deploy just 15,000 troops to destabilize the region and quickly damage NATO's credibility in the Baltics. This portrayal raises alarms about the readiness of NATO allies, particularly Germany, which is depicted as indecisive. In contrast, Poland is highlighted for announcing mobilization but failing to provide immediate military assistance. Such dynamics reveal a concerning picture of NATO's collective defense capabilities in the face of potential Russian aggression.
This analysis underscores the precariousness of security in the Baltic states, emphasizing that Russia might utilize humanitarian justifications to further its territorial ambitions. The implications of this war game are alarming, as they challenge NATO's commitment to collective defense and question the strategic responses of its member states in a rapidly evolving security landscape. Calls for strengthened deterrence and a reassessment of defense strategies among NATO countries have emerged in light of these findings, pushing for a more robust alliance capable of responding to similar threats in the future.
