The State Border Guard Service of Lithuania (VSAT) reported a significant decrease in illegal migration from Belarus, with no illegal migrants recorded for 18 consecutive days. This situation has been associated with extremely cold temperatures in the region alongside a diminished effort from Belarus to push migrants towards Lithuania. The reduced activity is also noted as a significant deviation from past trends observed in 2024 and 2025, highlighting a temporary phase of stability along the border.

In previous years, particularly in 2022, VSAT reported over 1,600 prevented crossings of illegal migrants from Belarus, while this year only 14 attempts have been recorded. This stark difference points to a marked shift in border dynamics, possibly reflective of both external environmental factors and changes in government tactics by Belarus. Since the onset of the migration crisis instigated by Belarus, Lithuania has successfully prevented approximately 24,600 illegal entries, indicating effective border management during a complex humanitarian situation.

The surge of migrants into Eastern European Union countries began in 2021, with Western nations largely blaming the Minsk regime for orchestrating this crisis. The situation has drawn attention to the broader geopolitical tensions in the region and the strategies of Belarus in leveraging migration as a tool against the EU. The current status at the Lithuanian border could signal a potential change in these dynamics, depending on weather conditions and political decisions in the coming months.