The ongoing conflict in Iran is believed to have originated from a miscalculation by Israel's intelligence agency, Mossad, which predicted that a war would incite a rebellion within Iran leading to the regime's collapse. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accepted Mossad's assessment that anti-government forces in Iran could rise up and overthrow the government shortly after the onset of military action. During a visit to Washington in January, Netanyahu reportedly tried to persuade officials in the Trump administration of this optimistic forecast, which went against the skepticism expressed by US intelligence agencies.

Despite these expectations, as the war has progressed into its fourth week, there has been no uprising within Iran, nor any significant infiltration by Iranian Kurdish militias from Iraq, as originally planned. US military and intelligence officials had doubted the feasibility of such a rebellion occurring amidst bombings, asserting that Iranians would not take to the streets in such a volatile situation. Furthermore, Israeli intelligence analysts had recently indicated that the probability of a successful uprising was low, questioning the efficacy of the proposed regime change strategy.

Mossad's current director, David Barnea, had nevertheless pushed for a plan aimed at regime change amid escalating military tensions with Iran, suggesting that after concentrated airstrikes and the removal of key leadership, coordinated intelligence operations could incite nationwide unrest. This overly optimistic expectation regarding regime collapse has been deemed a significant misjudgment in the context of the Iran war. Netanyahu continues to hold out hope that the conditions created by Israel will be utilized by the Iranian populace for an uprising, despite the evident lack of support for such anticipated actions within Iran itself.