A former Russian diplomat, Vyacheslav Matuzov, shared insights on how Russia perceives the escalating tensions in the Gulf region amidst U.S. and Israeli military actions targeting Iran. He argues that the main objective of these attacks is not to topple the Iranian regime, but rather to provoke Iran into expanding the conflict across the region, which could lead to increased hostilities with U.S. and Western interests in Gulf states such as Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. This escalation, according to Matuzov, risks fracturing the recent improvements in relations between Iran and Gulf nations that had been fostered through Chinese mediation.

Matuzov highlights that over recent years, relations between Iran and Gulf countries have shown significant signs of improvement, contributing to a more stable regional climate. However, he suggests that this rapprochement has been a cause of concern for Israel, which fears that a strengthened Iran-Gulf relationship may threaten its security interests. The announcement of targeted strikes against prominent Iranian leaders, including the late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, marked a critical point that pushed Iran towards a more aggressive posture, leaving it with little choice but to respond to such attacks.

The potential for a proxy war looms large, as any retaliatory measures taken by Iran could involve hitting American and Western positions in the Gulf, thereby escalating tensions further. Matuzov stresses that countries cannot endure strikes without reciprocating, warning that the actions taken by Israel in particular could have far-reaching consequences not just for Iran, but for the entire Gulf region, complicating an already volatile geopolitical landscape.