In early 2026, China experienced a notable increase in its imports of Russian oil, driven primarily by the need to enhance its crude stockpiles in response to rising geopolitical risks. Analysts suggest that this pre-war surge in imports stems from China's strategic approach to capitalize on low oil prices and secure energy supplies before global tensions escalated. Specifically, over one-fifth of China's total imported crude in January and February came from Russia, which has been selling oil at discounted rates due to sanctions imposed following its 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Despite the increase in import volume, the monetary value of these imports rose by a relatively modest 5.8 per cent, highlighting underlying market challenges. Experts, including Xu Tianchen from the Economist Intelligence Unit, indicated that China foresaw the geopolitical risks and acted accordingly to stockpile crude when the market had not yet adjusted to the implications of conflicts in the Middle East. As these dynamics evolve, analysts expect potential disruptions in supply chains, further complicating China's energy strategy.

Looking ahead, the shifting landscape of sanctions and the precariousness of the global energy market, exacerbated by the ongoing Iran war, add uncertainty to China's energy imports. The implications of these geopolitical developments will be crucial for China's future crude acquisition strategies as it navigates complex international relations while attempting to secure energy independence and stability for its growing economy.