Experts from the Norwegian analytical firm 'Rystad Energy' suggest that India's imports from Russia may decrease significantly, as Russian oil shipments increasingly shift to China, intensifying competition with Iranian suppliers.
Experts from the Norwegian analytical firm Rystad Energy have reported that India's oil imports from Russia are expected to decline by up to 40%, potentially falling to 600,000 barrels per day. This shift can be attributed to a significant portion of Russian oil shipments being redirected to China, where they are competing with Iranian suppliers. Chinese private refineries, which have historically favored Iranian crude, are now also sourcing Russian oil, increasing market pressure.
Chinese private refineries are typically seen as a balancing force in the market, as they absorb oil that no one else purchases. However, their operational capacity is limited, accounting for only about a quarter of the country’s total refining capacity, and they operate under government-imposed import quotas. This restriction means that although they are soaking up more oil, their ability to do so is inherently capped, creating a complex dynamic in the oil supply market.
As competition heats up between Russian and Iranian oil suppliers in China, it could have significant implications for global oil prices and supplier strategies moving forward. The changing import dynamics could affect both Russia’s and Iran’s bargaining power in international markets and how they negotiate pricing with China, which is one of the largest consumers of oil globally.
