Tehran has a different victory strategy, it wants to survive
Iran seeks to survive rather than win a traditional war against the United States, aiming to absorb punishment while inflicting political and economic damage to weaken U.S. resolve.
Tehran's current strategy in the conflict with the United States emphasizes survival over the goal of winning a traditional military victory. The Iranian regime aims to withstand bombardments, maintain its governance framework, engage in limited attacks, and create enough economic and political disruption to erode the will of Washington to continue the conflict. This approach departs from reliance on conventional military capabilities and instead focuses on leveraging strategic regions like the Straits of Hormuz, utilizing inexpensive drone swarms, and threatening both civilian and energy infrastructures within the region to achieve its goals.
Moreover, this strategy is not limited to military tactics; it deeply interacts with Iran's internal power dynamics, which are evolving and radicalizing in light of the ongoing war. A significant part of this shift involves the emergence of a new power center around Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the late Ali Khamenei, as the regime seeks to consolidate authority and respond to both internal and external pressures. The political landscape in Iran is thus shaped by this transition, as the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) continues to play a dominant role in the country's military and political strategies.
As Mojtaba Khamenei steps into the power vacuum left by his father, his ascent is crucial for understanding the future of Iran's governance and its military strategies. His rise has not occurred without challenges or complexities, indicating an ongoing power struggle within the Iranian elite. The implications of this shift could affect not only Iran’s strategic decisions regarding defense and aggression, but also its diplomatic relations and the broader geopolitical dynamics in the region.