Recent insights from experts highlight the severe impact of ongoing conflicts in the Middle East on African countries, particularly through disruptions in crucial supply chains. The war has significantly affected trade routes, especially through the strait of Hormuz, which is a key maritime pathway for not only oil and gas but also agricultural supplies, including fertiliser. Countries in Africa heavily dependent on imported fertiliser are facing an uncertain future as this conflict escalates, creating a ripple effect across their economies.

According to a report by the UN's trade and development agency (Unctad), the reliance on fertiliser imports via these affected channels is striking. For instance, 54% of Sudan's fertiliser imports are shipped through the strait of Hormuz, while Somalia and Kenya are reliant on it for 30% and 26% of their fertiliser needs, respectively. This dependency indicates how intertwined African agricultural productivity is with the geopolitical stability of regions far beyond their borders.

The report also emphasizes an alarming statistic: approximately one-third of the world’s fertiliser trade by sea is conducted through this strategic passageway. This makes African nations particularly susceptible to fluctuations in availability and price, ultimately threatening food security and economic stability in regions where households spend a large share of their income on food. Without immediate action to diversify import channels and enhance local agricultural input production, experts warn that the food crises in these regions could worsen.