Mar 12 • 11:00 UTC 🇨🇳 China South China Morning Post

Trump’s tariff investigation ‘bluff’ will not work on China, analysts warn

Analysts suggest that Trump's tariff investigations are unlikely to pressure China, as Beijing is familiar with his negotiation tactics.

The United States has initiated Section 301 investigations into alleged unfair trade practices by China and other countries, potentially allowing for the reimposition of higher tariffs. Analysts, however, consider this move a strategic 'bluff' intended to bolster President Trump's leverage as he prepares for his upcoming visit to China. They believe this tactic is designed to resonate with his domestic political base ahead of the midterm elections, framing his approach as one of strength and non-compromise.

Experts with insight into Chinese economic strategy suggest that Beijing has grown accustomed to the negotiation style employed by the Trump administration, referred to as the 'art of the deal.' Fu Weigang, president of the Shanghai Institute of Finance and Law, argues that China is unlikely to be intimidated by the tariff threats. Instead, they interpret it as a calculated political maneuver rather than a serious change in trade policy.

As China continues to navigate its economic policies in the face of external pressures, analysts opine that these tactics may be more about domestic politics in the US than effective foreign negotiation. The implication is that while the tariffs could have domestic political ramifications, their effect on China's economic decision-making may be minimal, as China has learned to respond strategically to similar tactics in the past.

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