The US Supreme Court's recent ruling against the legality of tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act has diminished the Trump administration's leverage in trade negotiations with China. With President Donald Trump slated to visit China from March 31 to April 2, the ruling adds significant uncertainty to both the upcoming summit and the overall US-China relationship. The decision means that the previously applied reciprocal tariffs of 10%, along with tariffs on fentanyl, have lost their effectiveness, fundamentally altering the trade landscape between the two nations.

Experts predict that while the ruling may initially offer a positive signal to China, it introduces complexities that could lead to increased uncertainty in the long term. For example, although the ruling decreases US tariffs from around 36.8% to a projected 21.2%, it doesn't necessarily translate to significant advantages for China. According to Sin Hung, a professor of international relations at Renmin University, while the reduction in tariffs might appear beneficial, it simultaneously weakens the Trump administration’s negotiating power. As Trump prepares for discussions with Chinese President Xi Jinping, he will require substantial achievements to present following the visit.

The key question now is whether China will feel inclined to make concessions or engage in significant transactions, such as purchasing more US products, considering the decreased leverage of the US in negotiations. Unnamed Chinese political analysts suggest that due to Trump's weakened position, China may offer less than they had intended before the court ruling. This scenario could reignite tensions in US-China relations, which had stabilized since the meetings last October. Michael Pearce from Oxford Economics points out that any short-term economic boost from the tariff reduction might be offset by prolonged uncertainties in the trade landscape.