Mar 10 • 08:00 UTC 🇯🇵 Japan Asahi Shimbun (JP)

The ‘shock’ of vacant lots in the post-reconstruction city: future projections utilizing lessons from Tohoku

The city of Sukumo in Kochi Prefecture has developed a pre-reconstruction plan to prepare for potential natural disasters, reflecting on the slow recovery and population decline following the 2011 Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami.

In the aftermath of the 2011 Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami, recovering areas are grappling with prolonged reconstruction efforts and a persistent decline in population. This has sparked a movement across various regions in Japan to create pre-reconstruction plans, aiming to mitigate future challenges. Sukumo, a coastal town in Kochi Prefecture, is one of those places preparing for potential disasters like the anticipated Nankai Trough earthquake, which could unleash waves as high as 25 meters. The city recently completed a comprehensive 150-page 'pre-reconstruction town planning' document, outlining where temporary housing would be built and where new homes and businesses would be established in the event of a disaster. This plan is intended to guide reconstruction efforts in the aftermath of a catastrophe.

During the development of this plan, there were instances where debates among residents became contentious. A survey of 2,000 locals revealed a strong desire to remain close to their familiar communities located on elevated grounds; however, the lack of flat land on these high grounds made it impossible to fulfill everyone's wishes. As part of this engagement process, residents attended workshops where they were shown photographs of other communities that had relocated higher up due to tsunami risks. The images, depicting the stark reality of how such relocations can lead to vacant lots, led to a sense of shock among the residents. Yuka Komatsu, a disaster prevention expert from an island region, remarked on the shocking reality of needing to move away from her home area and into elevated housing.

Despite initial enthusiasm, participation dwindled through the series of six workshops, raising concerns about whether genuine consensus among residents was achieved. Nankai Nakamura, a local area leader involved in planning, acknowledged the importance of having residents understand the broad direction of the project. Meanwhile, the area's demographic decline poses a significant obstacle, with projections indicating that the population could decrease by 60% in the next decade. Local officials emphasize that while detailed plans are being established, they are subject to change based on evolving circumstances, and the current document serves primarily as a conceptual framework for the future of the town, rather than a definitive plan.

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