According to a recent report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Russian arms exports have plummeted by 64% over a five-year span, marking a significant shift in the global arms trade landscape. Despite still being the world's third-largest arms supplier, Russia's share of global arms sales has dwindled from 21% during the years 2016-2020 to just 6.8% projected for 2021-2025. This change positions Russia as the only supplier among the top ten globally whose exports have decreased during this period.

The decline in Russian arms exports is primarily attributed to significantly reduced sales to key countries such as Algeria, China, and Egypt. In contrast, the majority of Russian arms exports in the current five-year period have been redirected toward India, China, and Belarus, which collectively accounted for 74% of its arms exports from 2021 to 2025. SIPRI's analysis, which focuses on half-decade trends, suggests that with a few major contracts, annual figures can fluctuate significantly, further emphasizing the steep decline in Russian arms trade.

Looking forward, SIPRI predicts that Russia is likely to sell fewer arms than both the United States and France in the coming years, particularly in strategic categories such as warships and combat aircraft, where it is expected to lag behind its competitors in the top ten suppliers. This drop in arms exports not only reflects Russia's shifting position in the global market but also raises questions about its military industrial complex and geopolitical leverage as it faces increased competition from other arms manufacturers.