The article discusses the potential fragmentation of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) following the killing of its leader, suggesting that while fragmentation seems likely, historical patterns indicate that such events often lead to increased violence rather than resolution.
In recent days, many have asked whether the fragmentation of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) is imminent after the death of its top leader on February 22nd. This question is particularly relevant given Mexico's history of violent cartel incidents. Previous attempts to decapitate cartel leadership, especially during former President Felipe Calderón's administration, led to significant waves of violence, resulting in prolonged crises of homicides, as seen with groups like Los Zetas and La Familia Michoacana. For many, the societal cost and the aftermath of such violent episodes overshadow any perceived gains from the arrest or killing of cartel leaders.
However, in the case of CJNG, the article outlines four critical factors that suggest that the likelihood of immediate and widespread fragmentation is relatively low. These factors include the cartel's robust infrastructure, financial reserves, territorial control, and the established hierarchy that has shown resilience in the face of leadership losses. Thus, while the leadership vacuum created by the death of a prominent figure typically raises concerns of fragmentation, the unique circumstances surrounding CJNG might defy these expectations. The ongoing situation calls for vigilant monitoring by authorities to prevent a potential escalation in violence that could arise if the cartel were to fracture.
