The recent death of Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, known as El Mencho, has thrown the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) into uncertainty regarding its leadership and future operations. Experts warn that the cartel could either attempt a peaceful negotiation to appoint a successor or plunge into a violent internal power struggle. The outcome remains crucial for the broader implications on Mexico's ongoing security crisis.

According to Andrés Sumano, a security researcher, there are two potential scenarios facing the CJNG. The first possibility is a smooth succession process without infighting, which seems plausible given the absence of betrayal within the cartel. The second possibility is far grimmer; a violent confrontation among factions for power could exacerbate the already critical security situation in Mexico, leading to increased violence and instability.

Security consultant David Saucedo supports Sumano's analysis, emphasizing that the circumstances surrounding El Mencho's demise may favor a peaceful transition rather than chaos. However, the implications of how CJNG handles leadership transition are profound, potentially influencing criminal activity not only locally but also impacting national security strategies in Mexico.