Jennifer Gavito, a former US diplomat and ambassador to Libya, argues that attempts by the United States to instigate regime change in Iran could have counterproductive effects. She states that such efforts not only risk fueling regional instability but also have the potential to empower the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), leading to a more hardline government being entrenched in Iran. This perspective is developed from her extensive experience within the State Department and insights gained while overseeing Iran policy until May 2023.

Gavito emphasizes that historical analyses of US military and diplomatic actions demonstrate a consistent pattern: interventions aimed at regime change typically result in strengthening authoritarian regimes rather than weakening them. She claims that every strategic exercise conducted by the US and its allies in the last decade concludes that external attempts to alter Iran's political landscape could ironically lead to a stronger grip of the IRGC on power, reinforcing the very establishment the US seeks to dismantle.

The implications of this warning extend beyond Iran, as destabilization in that region could spread to affecting international relations and security in a broader context, particularly for US interests and allies in the Middle East. Gavito's comments serve as a critical reminder for policymakers to rethink potential military and diplomatic interventions that might escalate tensions further rather than catalyze positive change.