The Centre for International Security and Strategy (CISS) at Tsinghua University has released its annual forecast, marking 2026 as a significant year for China's external security environment. The report identifies Taiwan tensions as the foremost geopolitical risk, suggesting that the situation is increasingly influenced by external factors, particularly the shifting landscape in US politics as the nation heads towards midterm elections. This uncertainty is deemed a consequential variable in shaping China's security assessments and strategies moving forward.

Furthermore, the report argues that economic factors are becoming increasingly fused with geopolitical considerations. A surge in protective measures, spearheaded by the US's technology containment strategy, is forecasted to create a ripple effect, potentially leading to heightened protectionism not only in the United States but also within the EU and other regions. The document warns that such dynamics could exacerbate tensions surrounding China's trade practices, particularly the ongoing trade surpluses that have drawn scrutiny and criticism from international partners.

Lastly, the report discusses the concept of a potential 'three seas linkage' that could emerge across significant maritime regions, including the East China Sea, the Taiwan Strait, and the South China Sea. This linkage may become increasingly strategic as geopolitical rivalries intensify, posing further risks and challenges to regional stability. Overall, CISS's insights indicate a clear understanding of the multifaceted nature of global security threats and the intricate balance China must navigate amidst these evolving circumstances.