A recent survey suggests that while China may economically surpass the US by 2036, tensions over Taiwan could still lead to conflict, despite the US's enduring military dominance.
A survey conducted by the Atlantic Council indicates that economic competition between China and the United States is anticipated to intensify over the next decade, with many experts forecasting that China could overtake the US as the world's largest economy by 2036. However, despite this potential economic shift, the United States is expected to maintain military superiority, with most experts believing that its military might will endure amid rising tensions in the Taiwan Strait. The survey highlights that nearly 58% of forecasters predict China will become the dominant economic power, while only 33% believe the US will retain its current economic lead.
The report emphasizes a divide among experts regarding technological innovation and diplomatic influence, suggesting that the US and China could emerge as 'peer competitors' in these arenas. This rivalry raises concerns about stability in the region, especially regarding Taiwan, where many experts believe China may attempt to assert its claims through force. As the geopolitical landscape shifts, the implications of China's economic rise coupled with its assertive foreign policy may create further uncertainties and risks of conflict in the Asia-Pacific region.
In light of these developments, policymakers in both Washington and Beijing will need to navigate this complex landscape carefully. The increasing economic interdependence and technological competition could lead to a recalibration of strategies, with the potential for both cooperation and confrontation becoming more pronounced. The future of US-China relations, particularly concerning military positioning and the Taiwan issue, remains uncertain, underscoring the significance of this survey in understanding current and future global dynamics.
