The recent war with Iran and the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz are driving up oil prices, leading the German Economic Institute (IW) to issue a warning about the economic repercussions for Germany. The study indicates that if oil prices were to rise to $150 per barrel, Germany's economy could suffer losses amounting to 0.5% of its GDP in 2026 and 1.3% in 2027, translating into a significant economic output loss exceeding 80 billion euros over two years.

Currently, oil prices range from $76 to $82 per barrel, raising concerns about the feasible impacts on the German economy if this upward trend continues. The United States and Israel may attempt to exert control over the Strait of Hormuz, but there are fears that any closure could last for weeks or even months, further exacerbating the economic strain on substantial oil-dependent economies like Germany's.

This potential economic crisis not only underscores the interconnectedness of global markets but also raises questions about the preparedness of European nations for such geopolitical tensions. The lack of consultation with European countries prior to military actions against Iran, as expressed by some experts, indicates a broader dialogue is needed about collective security and economic stability in the face of rising oil prices and ongoing international conflicts.