The long-term expectation of a prolonged conflict between the U.S.-Israel alliance and Iran has positioned adequate weapon supply as a critical factor determining the war's outcome. The U.S. Department of Defense asserted that the number of Iranian ballistic missile launches decreased by 86% overall since the conflict’s onset, with a noted 23% reduction over the last 24 hours. Furthermore, Iran's one-way drone launches have reportedly dropped by 73% compared to the conflict's early days, with military leaders claiming superiority in air control over the battlefield.

Despite the reported decrease in missile launches, experts caution that this does not necessarily indicate depletion of Iran's missile capacity. A report from BBC cites research from the Israeli National Security Institute (INSS), indicating that Iran has launched a total of 571 missiles and 1,391 drones thus far. The report estimates that prior to the war, Iran possessed approximately 2,000 ballistic missiles and many more Shahed suicide drones. Analysts suggest that the abrupt decline in launches may be a strategic move by Iran to preserve missile stockpiles, especially considering the size of Iranian territory which still allows for concealment of weaponry despite U.S.-Israeli air dominance.

If Iran still retains the capability for ballistic missile launches, the U.S. will likely need to activate air defense systems to intercept potential threats. The current stockpile of Patriot missiles in the U.S. is estimated to be around 1,600, with a notable depletion in recent days due to increasing operational demands. The cost of each intercept missile exceeds $4 million, and the annual U.S. production rate is roughly 700 units. In response to the growing need for munitions, former President Trump has urged defense manufacturers to ramp up production to ensure adequate readiness against potential Iranian missile threats.